KEYNOTE ADDRESS

BY THE HONOURABLE MINISTER,

FEDERAL MINISTRY OF AVIATION AND AEROSPACE DEVELOPMENT, FESTUS KEYAMO |SAN, CON. FCIArb (UK)

AT THE PUBLIC PRESENTATION OF THE 2024 SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION (SCP), ON 20^TH FEBRUARY 2024 AT THE NAF CONFERENCE CENTRE, ABUJA.

[Protocol]

It is a great pleasure for me to address you on this occasion of the Public Presentation of the 2024 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) and the unveiling of the various related publications.

2. The Annual Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) document is one of the flagship products of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, providing critical information to help guide decision-making across all sectors of our economy. As we are all aware, weather and climate have profound effects on aviation, agriculture, maritime and blue economy, water resources, natural resources, energy, disaster risk management, infrastructure investments, among others. Reliable meteorological information is therefore essential for supporting food security, reducing risks, improving livelihoods, and building resilience against the vagaries of weather.

3. The SCP contains essential information such as the predicted start and end dates of the growing season, the length of the growing season, the expected amount of annual rainfall, the temperature forecast, malaria and meningitis vigilance and the forecast for dry spells and little dry season. It also includes socio-economic implications of the prediction. Thus, enabling individuals, businesses, and governments to plan holistically for the future.

4. In the face of the global climate crisis, the work of NiMet has become increasingly crucial. Our ability to adapt and mitigate the impacts of climate change rests on the foundation of accurate predictions and informed decision-making. The SCP which is a tool of commitment to excellence in climate science emphasizes the Agency's dedication to ensuring the resilience and sustainable development of our dear nation.

5. Our climate is a complex and dynamic system, affecting everything from agriculture to transportation, energy production, water use and management, including disaster preparedness. Recent years have seen upward trends in extreme weather and climate events. The World Meteorological Organization has unequivocally affirmed that 2023 stands as the hottest year ever documented, surpassing all previous records by a considerable margin. The global average temperature for the year perilously approached a worrisome 1.5°C above pre-industrial benchmarks. This alarming reality signifies a critical moment, particularly considering the Paris Agreement’s aim to limit long-term temperature increase to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

6. In Nigeria, the temperature record for 2023 was just 0.1 degree Celsius behind 2021 which is the warmest year in Nigeria since 1981. The official confirmation of the current breaking of heat records serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for heightened global and local initiatives to address the escalating climate emergency. Therefore, the work done by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) is invaluable, providing us with insights into upcoming weather patterns, extreme events, and long-term trends.

7. Our changing climate has had a significant impact on food security globally. The recent COP28 in Dubai, UAE, identified the challenge of food security as one of the greatest threats of climate change to humanity. About 159 participating countries adopted a declaration and commitment to make the global food system more sustainable, climate resilient, and secure by assisting vulnerable people with sustainable water management and climate action strategies. The launch of the 2024 Seasonal Climate Prediction today signifies an important contribution to our journey towards a more resilient and sustainable future.

8. Ladies and Gentlemen,

As the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, I fully understand the impacts of weather on the aviation industry. Flight safety and efficient air transport operations are hugely dependent on accurate weather forecasts, advisories, and early warnings. Through continuous investments in meteorological weather stations, satellite data, and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), NiMet has continued to enhance aviation-specific weather services. The aviation industry looks forward to continued collaboration with NiMet and the meteorological community, to utilize weather information for planning flight operations, aircraft routing, and scheduling among other applications.

9. Rainfall patterns in West Africa are closely linked to changes in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the tropical Pacific Ocean. This means that accurate rainfall predictions for Nigeria depend on the complex interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean. The 2024 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) uses a standard approach that considers the teleconnection between the SST anomalies in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the rainfall regime over Nigeria. The predictions in this edition of the SCP were based on a strong El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the first half of 2024, and the projection that the Neutral phase will most likely persist for the later part of the year.

10. As we delve into the details of the Seasonal Climate Predictions today, let us not only see them as scientific projections but as a call to action. The insights provided by NiMet should inspire collaboration among government agencies, private sectors, non-governmental organisations, and communities to collectively build a climate-resilient nation. Without further ado, let me provide you with a summary of the expectations for this year.

Highlights of the 2024 SCP

11. The 2024 onset of rains is predicted to be delayed in some parts of the country, especially the North Central states of the country. A normal onset is likely to occur over the northern states. Borno, Abia, and Akwa Ibom states are predicted to have an early onset when compared to their long-term averages.

An early end of the season is predicted for parts of Yobe, Jigawa, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kano, Kaduna, Plateau, Nasarawa Taraba, Gombe, Bauchi, Cross River, Ebonyi, Ogun, and Lagos states. However, a late cessation is predicted over the southern states of Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Ondo, Ekiti, and parts of Edo, Delta, Ogun, Oyo, Kogi, Kwara, FCT, Niger, and Kaduna.

The annual rainfall amount is predicted to be below normal over parts of Yobe, Jigawa, Bauchi, Kano, Kebbi, Gombe, Plateau, Taraba, Nasarawa, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Cross River, Delta and Bayelsa states when compared to their long term normal. However, other parts of the country are likely to observe normal to above-normal annual rainfall amounts.

Most parts of the country are expected to experience a shorter length of season, however, Bayelsa, Rivers, and Akwa-Ibom are likely to experience a longer length of season when compared with their mean. Normal to shorter length of season will likely occur in other parts of the country.

The document also contains detailed prediction for temperature in the first five months of the year, predictions for the dry spell and little dry season, as well as prediction for Malaria and Meningitis. These predictions are accompanied by explicit details, especially focusing on the socio-economic implications associated with each projection.

12. As the highly anticipated 2024 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction is released today, I strongly encourage all stakeholders to evaluate the predictions thoroughly and strategically, to build adaptive capacity and resilience against climate variability within your respective sectors. It is my desire that the content of the document enables policymakers to plan activities, allocate resources effectively, and protect our citizens from the adverse impacts of weather.

13. Therefore, as we gather here today, we know the important role of accurate and timely climate predictions in shaping our preparedness and responses to ever-changing weather events. The information we are about to unveil today represents a roadmap for our communities, businesses, and policymakers to navigate the upcoming 2024 seasons. This is in support of the Renewed Hope Agenda of the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Federal Republic of Nigeria, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

14. Distinguished Guests and Members of the Press,

While we unveiled the 2024 SCP today, may I inform you that the document has been summarised for Policy Makers, and translated into Hausa, Igbo, Yoruba, and Pidgin to promote wide uptake of the information and increase access to the critical climate information for all. NiMet also prepares a research document annually which details the climatic situation of the country in the preceding year. The 2023 version is available today as the 2023 State of the Climate Report in Nigeria.

15. My commendation goes to the Management and staff of NiMet for their unwavering commitment to advancing our understanding of weather and climate patterns. Their dedication to research and innovation has continually empowered the Government at all levels to make proactive decisions that safeguard our environment and the well-being of every Nigerian.

16. May these predictions guide us towards a future of sustainable and adaptive practices. Thank you and God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.